Although Canada was spared the worst of U.S. President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs on Wednesday, the B.C. construction industry is in no mood to celebrate.
“It’s interesting because it seems like a lot of people breathed a sigh of relief, in that there was some measure of reprieve because we weren’t on that whiteboard list that was presented in the Rose Garden,” said Chris Atchison, president of the BC Construction Association.
“But what it has done is it has also just continued with chaos and uncertainty for the construction industry. Nothing was really resolved as a result of the announcement yesterday. There was no additional clarity given to what’s going to count or what’s outside of the current agreement, so I think we have to proceed cautiously.”
BCCA is providing special programming for its members related to bidding, contracting and risk allocation, and will continue pushing for prompt payment legislation as the premiers unite against the Trump administration and implement more interprovincial standardization, he said.
Another boost to the industry could come from large-scale projects planned or underway across the province. These labour-intensive projects could help mitigate potential pain brought on by tariffs and counter-tariffs, Atchison said.
“We know that the [industrial, commercial and institutional; or ICI] sector is well-poised to meet those opportunities," he said. "That means that we’re going to have to keep training and upskilling the workforce and adding net new professionals ... to serve the needs of those demands.”
Indeed, construction employment is forecast to rise 10 per cent by 2034 in B.C.’s non-residential sector, as major projects provide a healthy pipeline of current and future work, according to a Thursday report from industry organization BuildForce Canada.
Ongoing activity on the commercial and institutional side includes major hospital projects and public transit upgrades in the Lower Mainland, as well as mining and LNG projects up north, said the report. There is also significant utilities work, such as on wastewater facilities and seismic upgrades to hydroelectric infrastructure.
The BuildForce report found that residential construction employment, unlike ICI, may only rise one per cent by 2034. That’s because it projects new housing investment and new housing employment to contract by 12 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively.
The saving grace is home renovations, said Bill Ferreira, BuildForce’s executive director. Renovation-related employment could jump 36 per cent by 2034 due to an aging housing stock, land availability crunches and greater densification, he said.
While the BuildForce data was collected before Wednesday’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced, Ferreira said the residential side was already softening, though not significantly.
“What we’re seeing is a bit of a softening on the residential side, in part because of changes to federal immigration policy that will lower overall numbers, and that’s going to have an impact on household formations which in turn will have an impact on housing starts,” he said.
Already before the trade conflict, housing starts per capita in B.C. were at their lowest level in at least a decade, not counting the pandemic year of 2020, according to an October analysis by the Business Council of B.C.
As the trade conflict threatens to further erode residential activity and inflate input costs, BCCA’s Atchison said tradespeople should exercise caution and prudence.
"When things are uncertain in the construction industry, there is a feeling out there of apprehension where businesses can’t be fully unencumbered to start hiring again, so there is this little bit of tentativeness while we sort through this” he said.
