MONTREAL 鈥� In the final stretch of a Montreal byelection campaign widely seen as a referendum on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau鈥檚 leadership, the Liberal candidate wants people to focus on her 鈥� not her leader.
The byelection in LaSalle鈥斆塵ard鈥擵erdun should have been Laura Palestini鈥檚 to lose. The area has been a Liberal bastion, by and large, for decades. A diverse riding in Montreal's southwest, it has a large anglophone population with strong Italian roots in some neighbourhoods.
But this time, it鈥檚 hard to predict what will happen when polls close on Monday. After nine years in power, surveys show the Liberals trailing the Conservatives in every part of the country except Quebec. And even here in Montreal, a riding that should have been a given is now up for grabs.
What little polling there is suggests a three-way race between the Liberals, New Democrats and Bloc Qu茅b茅cois. A Mainstreet Research poll this week put the Bloc in the lead.
Palestini seems to be trying not to dwell on all of that. In an interview while door-knocking in LaSalle on Thursday, she repeated several times that it鈥檚 her name on the ballot 鈥� in other words, not Trudeau鈥檚.
鈥淚t鈥檚 about me. It鈥檚 not about the PM,鈥� she said. 鈥淚 will let myself be the 鈥� prime focus of this election.鈥�
LaSalle is friendly turf for Palestini, and it showed when she went door to door. She spoke to an elderly woman in Italian, pointing out where to find her name on a scaled-down version of the nearly metre-long ballot voters will have to navigate on Monday.
A record 91 candidates are on the ballot for this byelection, most affiliated with a group protesting Canada鈥檚 first-past-the-post voting system. Palestini wants to be sure no one has trouble finding her in the sea of names.
A couple out for a walk 鈥� Pat Goill and Harold Layer 鈥� told Palestini she can count on them. Give him a chance, they told The Canadian Press afterward, when asked about Trudeau鈥檚 declining popularity. They鈥檝e always voted Liberal.
Palestini is well known in LaSalle. A lifelong resident, she has been a municipal councillor for 19 years. 脡lisabeth and Yannick, a couple with young children, said they鈥檙e happy with the services in the neighbourhood, including a new library and skate park. They cast their ballots for Palestini in the advance polls.
Of the riding鈥檚 disparate neighbourhoods, LaSalle is the most staunchly Liberal. Getting out the vote here is a key part of Palestini鈥檚 strategy. 鈥淭he reception is extremely positive,鈥� she said. 鈥淚鈥檝e had five mandates at the municipal level, so definitely I鈥檓 already at an advantage because when I do knock on a door, many people will recognize me.鈥�
Elsewhere, though, it鈥檚 a different picture. In nearby Ville-脡mard, Sylvie Sagala said she鈥檒l likely vote Bloc 鈥� maybe NDP. 鈥淭rudeau doesn鈥檛 have good ratings these days,鈥� she said. 鈥淎 little change wouldn鈥檛 hurt.鈥�
The NDP and Bloc are pulling out all the stops to take the seat from the Liberals. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has visited several times to support his candidate, city Coun. Craig Sauv茅, who told The Canadian Press last week that his party has the biggest army of volunteers in the riding.
Bloc Leader Yves-Fran莽ois Blanchet was in the riding Wednesday with a delegation of MPs, urging supporters not to get complacent. 鈥淚t鈥檚 certain that if the Bloc Qu茅b茅cois wins in LaSalle鈥斆塵ard鈥擵erdun, it will send a very strong message to Ottawa,鈥� said Bloc candidate Louis-Philippe Sauv茅.
In contrast, Palestini has given few interviews through the campaign, and Trudeau has kept a relatively low profile. His face is not on campaign posters, and some mailers don鈥檛 mention his name at all. He visited the riding in August, and stopped by again on Friday to visit a seniors home in LaSalle. The event was closed to media.
Asked about the byelection at a press conference in the Montreal area on Friday, Trudeau took aim at the NDP for deciding last week to end the supply-and-confidence agreement that had helped keep the Liberal minority government afloat. He accused Singh of 鈥渃aving to the political pressures鈥� from the Conservatives.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 not what Montrealers expect and deserve,鈥� he said.
Trudeau aside, a steady stream of Liberal ministers has visited the riding in recent weeks. On Thursday, Palestini鈥檚 entourage included Liberal Party campaign co-chair and Tourism Minister Soraya Martinez Ferrada.
In an interview, Ferrada downplayed the stakes of Monday鈥檚 results. 鈥淚 would remind people that we have lost byelections and won general elections,鈥� she said. 鈥淲e鈥檙e doing everything humanly possible to make sure that we are winning this riding. We don鈥檛 take anything for granted. But the main focus is getting ready for the general election.鈥�
Nevertheless, a loss in LaSalle-脡mard-Verdun would sound a dire warning for the Liberals, especially after they lost another former stronghold to the Conservatives in a Toronto byelection in June. That surprise defeat prompted calls for Trudeau to step aside, though he has insisted he will lead the party into the next election, which could happen anytime in the coming year.
The Conservatives are not likely to be competitive this time around. Candidate Louis Ialenti, who describes himself on LinkedIn as a 鈥渟artorial, legal and entrepreneurial enthusiast,鈥� recently told The Canadian Press he鈥檚 knocked on 15,000 doors.
The Tories' Quebec lieutenant, Pierre Paul-Hus, said doubling the party鈥檚 vote share from the last election would be a success. In 2021, the Conservatives took home a little less than eight per cent of the vote.
But Philippe J. Fournier, creator of poll aggregator 338Canada, said it鈥檚 impossible to know whether the Liberals, NDP or Bloc will win on Monday.
鈥淭his is one of the rare times that I publicly say that I truly have no idea,鈥� he said. 鈥淎nybody who tells you with certainty, 鈥極h this person is going to win,鈥� they are fooling themselves.鈥�
If the Liberals lose, Fournier said, they could be looking at winning just 50 to 65 seats across the country in the next election, out of 343. 鈥淲e鈥檙e in blowout territory,鈥� he said.
Palestini insisted she鈥檚 not focusing on 鈥渁nything negative鈥� in the last days before the vote. 鈥淭his election remains my campaign. It鈥檚 my name that鈥檚 on the ballot,鈥� she said. 鈥淎nd I have no reason to think of this election in any other way.鈥�
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.
鈥� With files from St茅phane Blais and Morgan Lowrie
Maura Forrest, The Canadian Press
