Lawyers Amandeep Singh, left, and Justin Thind of Singh Thind and Associates are NDP and Liberal supporters, respectively. Their parties fare well in Surrey鈥檚 more urban ridings Photograph By GRAEME WOOD
Surrey lawyer and Liberal supporter Justin Thind was clearly pleased in 2015 to witness British Columbia鈥檚 fastest growing city unanimously ride a 鈥渞ed wave鈥� to a majority government led by his namesake Justin Trudeau.
鈥淚t came out of nowhere,鈥� said Thind.
But this time around, Thind concedes there are no certainties for Trudeau鈥檚 Liberals, who must fend off both New Democrats and Conservatives looking to collectively regain their five lost seats from the last federal election.
鈥淪urrey, along with other suburbs of Vancouver, is what many call battleground ridings. Depending on how the election goes, it could be determinative,鈥� said Hamish Telford, associate professor of political science at the University of the Fraser Valley.
Surrey is an ethnically diverse, economically complex city where housing costs have soared 79 % over the last five years, making affordability 鈥� and with it, transportation 鈥� among the key issues across all parties.
鈥淚t really comes down to: 鈥楬ow am I living? What鈥檚 in my pocket?鈥欌�� said Amandeep Singh, Thind鈥檚 law partner and NDP supporter. 鈥淎ffordability is just the overwhelming issue. Wages have been stuck and housing prices have gone up,鈥� said Amandeep.
Surrey is an eclectic, fast-changing, fast-growing population set out across an expansive geographic territory. This, said Telford, makes it harder for parties to track voters, making outcomes more difficult to predict.
Where, according to the 2016 census, 58% of the 517,887 residents are visible minorities, topics such as immigration, social values, social cohesion and public safety are also top of mind in Surrey.
A Singh-sational Surrey outcome?
Trudeau commanded the message of inclusion and tolerance in 2015 and subsequently raised immigration allotments, but a recent racist blackface scandal has diminished his social currency, both Thind and Amandeep agree. But more important in shifting Surrey minds, they say, is the emergence of NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, who could spoil the Liberal party in Surrey; Singh clearly identifies with the city鈥檚 South Asian population 鈥� the largest in Western Canada.
Telford said while he is not sure about whether or not the blackface scandal will hinder Trudeau, he is more sure about Singh helping himself on election day, October 21.
鈥淛agmeet Singh is a compelling figure who might resonate with many. If the Liberals had work cut out to hold on to the ridings, then they鈥檒l have even more to do,鈥� said Telford.
鈥淎s a turban-wearing Sikh, a lot of people will identify with him. He鈥檚 a compelling figure and good campaigner, and he could be a factor in parts of Surrey,鈥� said Telford.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has seen a small uptick in polls during the campaign. That uptick could mean the difference in ridings his party identifies with 鈥� namely urban and diverse ones, such as Surrey Centre and Surrey-Newton Photo: Burnaby Now
However, he said, 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think anyone will vote for Jagmeet just because he鈥檚 a Sikh. But if you weigh up the policies you may ask 鈥榳ho understands me and who can relate to me?鈥欌�� said Telford.
Meanwhile, Conservative leader Andrew Scheer has eyes on three previous Tory-held ridings along the city鈥檚 edges where conservatism is more entrenched in its wealthier, mostly white European neighbourhoods, said Telford. Being a city on the border, residents are keenly observant of free trade agreements and immigration enforcement 鈥� matters of focus for the Conservatives.
鈥淭he major issues are going to be what鈥檚 going to carry you across the finish line. There will be pandering and pigeonholing, but in a tight riding it will be about staying on point,鈥� said Thind.
But one issue that does not appear to play as prominently as others is the environment. Telford says new immigrants tend to focus on individual economic prosperity and tend not to tie such prosperity to environmental policy.
鈥淎s a country or community becomes more affluent and economically secure, they politically begin to express concern for social values, such as the environment or social justice. Before then, economic issues drive their concerns,鈥� said Telford.
Historically, the Green Party fares poorly in Surrey ridings.
鈥淪outh of the Fraser, the environment is an issue for young people but it鈥檚 still not an issue for the general population,鈥� said Thind.
To that end, Jagmeet Singh, who is 鈥渢reated like a rockstar鈥� among Surrey youth, could have the upper hand on the issue locally, said Amandeep.
SkyTrain funding past Fleetwood undetermined
Fleetwood-Port Kells is one of the more ethnically mixed ridings, situated in the northeast sector of Surrey, bordering the Fraser River. It is home to two major regional parks and where the growing city confronts protected farmland situated on a flood plain in need of climate change mitigation work.
In 2015, Liberal candidate Ken Hardie broke Conservative Nina Grewal鈥檚 streak of four consecutive election victories with 47% of the popular vote to Grewal鈥檚 29%. Visible minorities comprise 69% of the fast-changing riding. New Democrats have typically received a quarter to one third of the vote but that could change given the dramatic rise in housing costs, according to NDP candidate Annie Ohana.
Teacher Annie Ohana is the NDP candidate for Fleetwood-Port Kells, where the New Democrats have never won but competed with about 20-30 % of the vote Photo: Graeme Wood
鈥淲hat we鈥檙e seeing is people are trying to find a place to get ahead in life. South of the Fraser is booming; Surrey is one of the fastest growing populations. School-wise we鈥檙e bursting through the seams,鈥� said Ohana, a high school teacher.
鈥淚n seeing the families I deal with, a lot of times it鈥檚 about paying the bills. Being a working class family, it鈥檚 trying to survive day-to-day; trying to make a life in a new country,鈥� said Ohana.
The Liberals have failed to deliver any significant new housing projects in Surrey, as the Trudeau-branded National Housing Strategy 鈥渓argely maintains current funding levels for current activities and slightly reduces targeted funding for households in core housing need,鈥� according to the Parliamentary Budget Office.
As Hardie explained, 鈥淚t just takes time鈥� to have federal, provincial and local partners come together.
Hardie is a former TransLink spokesperson who has eyes on extending SkyTrain through his riding and then to Langley. 聽The Liberals have already committed to funding 40% of the first phase of the extension to Fleetwood. However, the Liberals have made no specific commitment to help fund the $1.5 billion phase two extension to Langley. Nor has any other party.
Public transportation is key to affordability, according to Simon Fraser University urban planning instructor Andy Yan.
鈥淲hat looks like a deal in living in Surrey but requires long commute times really isn鈥檛 much of a deal. That鈥檚 where, in theory, development of a good transit system can help ameliorate things,鈥� said Yan.
Only about one-third of Surrey workers commute across a bridge to north of the Fraser River, whereas 44% commute within the municipality.
鈥淭he plurality of workers in Surrey are mostly within Surrey. So your system of transportation must be more integrated within the city than the region,鈥� said Yan.
To that end, the SkyTrain extension has been controversial, as it promotes regional connections as opposed to a once-planned inner city light rail loop that was scuttled by Surrey鈥檚 incoming council in late 2018.
Anti-gang policies top of mind in Surrey鈥檚 鈥榟eart鈥�
Surrey Board of Trade executive director Anita Huberman told the Newton Business Improvement Association earlier this month that 鈥淪kyTrain is great as a regional transportation solution.鈥� However, she said, 鈥淥ur transportation investments need to be different. We need to connect our town centres.鈥�
Surrey-Newton is Surrey鈥檚 predominantly South Asian 鈥� mostly Sikh 鈥� riding with 61% of the population. Visible minorities comprise 76% of the riding 鈥� the third most of any riding in B.C. Its roughly 114,000 people are landlocked by other ridings, thus forming much of the city鈥檚 suburban core 鈥� much of it traffic-congested. Liberal Sukh Dhaliwal, a long-time politician, won with 56% of the vote in 2015; however, it was the NDP that held the realigned riding in 2011 when Jinny Sims won Newton-North Delta with 33%. During four elections since 2004, and before Dhaliwal, the riding鈥檚 greatest victor won with just 36% as it appeared to be a toss up between the three major parties.
Newton also holds a lot of industrial land, Huberman said. As such, Canadian policy toward trade with the United States is important.
鈥淲e are a border city. We must trade. We must cut down those barriers,鈥� said Huberman.
Yan said Surrey is more sensitive to trade to the U.S. than 麻豆传媒映画is. 鈥淵ou have fairly sizable parts of the trucking industry along Surrey,鈥� he said. 鈥淪outh Asians are a key part of that economy. The flow of goods has a greater level of connection in Surrey.鈥�
Surrey Board of Trade executive director Anita Huberman wants to see federal dollars for transportation infrastructure and an open U.S. border for trade. Pictured her in the Newton riding, small business taxes must be kept low, says Huberman Photo: Graeme Wood
Another key concern raised by Newton businesses is crime. Hardie said federal funding for anti-gang programs has helped.
鈥淲e are one of the few ground zeroes when it comes to the drugs and guns and gangs issue. We have more than our share of violence, and although the stats go down, it only takes one incident to really bring it back top of mind,鈥� he said.
Top of mind, of late, has been the unsolved 2018 daytime murder of Paul Bennett, a hockey coach who was gunned down on his driveway in a case of mistaken identity.
Last month, Trudeau made a short stop in Surrey for a rally in which he re-announced a ban on assault rifles and the consent to municipalities to ban handguns.
The NDP has pledged an annual $22.5 million Youth Gang Prevention Fund, a matter Jagmeet Singh raised while visiting Surrey in late September.
Conservatives have pledged just as much anti-gang funding but also to end automatic bail for gangsters and revoke their parole rights. It also plans to pre-identify gangs under the Criminal Code, making prosecutions easier.
No party has considered re-establishing a dedicated police force for the ports.
Liberal hold in Surrey Centre would be ground-breaking
The Surrey Centre riding is home to much street-level criminal activity as it encapsulates the emerging condo-laden downtown core of Surrey and holds all four of its SkyTrain stations to Vancouver. It has an industrial zone and commercial port along the Fraser River to the north and detached homes south of downtown. On the whole, the riding is ethnically diverse, but groups are largely segregated within their respective neighbourhoods 鈥� South Asians living south of downtown with Europeans to the north and a growing Chinese population at the centre. Liberal Randeep Sarai won his first election in 2015 with 45% of the vote, ending a 15-year back-and-forth tilt between the Conservatives and New Democrats. The riding was redistributed in 2015 but largely reflects the old Surrey North, which had gone to Jasbir Sandhu of the NDP in 2011. In 2008, Conservative Chuck Cadman won.
鈥淚t has never been won by the same party back-to-back,鈥� since 1997, said Thind.
Housing affordability an issue from top to bottom
鈥淐ommunity safety is a big issue in Surrey,鈥� said Conservative candidate for South Surrey-White Rock Kerry-Lynne Findlay, a lawyer and former federal cabinet minister who ran unsuccessfully in 2015. 鈥淥bviously, there is a lot of concern about gangs and gang violence.鈥�
However, she concedes it鈥檚 not as much of a factor in the ocean-side riding that is Surrey鈥檚 most wealthy and predominantly European (68%), encompassing the small municipality of White Rock, neighbouring the Peace Arch border, a busy truck crossing. It is, to date, Scheer鈥檚 only stop in Surrey.
Conservative Russ Hiebert had won four consecutive elections since 2004 but retired for the 2015 election, leaving the door open for newcomer Dianne Watts, who utilized her name recognition as long-time Surrey mayor to stave off the anti-Conservative wave by winning 44%, compared with Liberal candidate Judith Higginbotham鈥檚 41%. However, when Watts left Ottawa in 2017 to pursue the BC Liberal leadership, a byelection was held on December 11, 2017, pitting two new star candidates against one another. This time, 20-year BC Liberal South Surrey MLA Gordie Hogg won for the federal Liberals over Findlay 47% to 42%. The NDP only got 5% of the vote, reflecting a nationwide meltdown of support.
Findlay says affordability is the main issue in the riding. Her party鈥檚 goal is to reduce taxes by cutting government spending.
Real estate prices have soared in South Surrey, leaving a sour taste among even homeowners whose adult children struggle to enter the market. Findlay says Metro 麻豆传媒映画is a desirable place to live, which boosts home prices. Immigration is another factor, she said.
鈥淭hey鈥檝e brought their money from elsewhere into the country and let鈥檚 face it, in other countries you don鈥檛 have the same tax structure.
鈥淪o you鈥檝e got a lot more money in your pocket, a lot more savings, when you come back to Canada, which allows you to buy a big ticket item like a house,鈥� said Findlay.
As former Minister of National Revenue, Findlay said tax avoidance in real estate was 鈥渙n the radar.鈥� However, it has been the Liberals who have invested in more audits, resulting in $481.5 million in B.C. assessments since April 2015.
Findlay says, knowing what she knows now, there is even more room for better tax compliance measures in real estate. Her party has promised a national inquiry into money laundering, which has buoyed B.C. home prices, according to a 2019 report to B.C.鈥檚 government. To tackle foreign speculation, the NDP is promising a 15% foreign homebuyer鈥檚 tax and the Liberals have promised a 1% annual vacancy and speculation tax on applicable residential properties owned by non-resident, non-Canadians.
Findlay said Surrey鈥檚 proximity to the border has meant its residents are keenly interested in immigration policy. She cited a recent court case of human smuggler Michael Shun Lok Kong, who routinely helped Chinese nationals sneak across the unfenced border.
鈥淲e see it in high volume in Ontario and Manitoba, but it鈥檚 happening here. And this is upsetting people. Some of the most upset are our new Canadians. They say: 鈥榃e waited in line,鈥欌�� said Findlay.
鈥淲e believe in robust immigration,鈥� she said. 鈥淲hen you have an orderly system the overall support for immigration goes up. We believe our approach鈥rings the whole population on board with welcoming and integrating new Canadians.鈥�
Small 鈥榗鈥� conservatives a likely factor further east
More conservative views on immigration and society are likely to be found in the Cloverdale-Langley City riding that contains the eastern part of Surrey and the City of Langley.
鈥淎s you get closer to Langley, it will be harder for progressives to win,鈥� said Thind.
The riding was newly formed in 2015 from three of the region鈥檚 previous ones. It is a predominantly European riding (64%), with South Asians comprising only 14% of the area. Liberal John Aldag, like colleague Sarai, won his first election with 46% of the vote. Aldag didn鈥檛 have to run against Conservative warhorse Mark Warawa, who dominated the Langley riding since 2004 and won Langley-Aldergrove in 2015 before passing away this year.
Aldag was a member of the Special Joint Committee on Physician-Assisted Dying. He supports physician-assisted death and said the committee was too conservative in its outcome, which has been ruled in Quebec as too restrictive.
Aldag鈥檚 main competitor is Conservative candidate Tamara Jansen, who takes a pro-life stance and opposes medical assistance for death. At the 2018 March for Life event in Victoria, she likened hospices using such policies to death camps.
