A question on many city hall watchers’ minds these days is this one: Is Adriane Carr running for mayor this year, or not?
Let’s go to the source for the answer.
“Well,” Carr told me Monday, “I have not made my mind up.”
Which is an answer she’s been giving for months since her name has circulated as a possible mayoral candidate for the Green Party in the Oct. 15 election.
This is not new territory for Carr, who was considered a good bet to run and win in 2018, yet she chose to focus on retaining her council seat, topping the polls with 69,730 votes.
I spoke to Carr Monday because the Green Party is having its nomination meeting this Saturday to determine its council candidates for this year’s race.
Not going to be much of a contest, since Carr and incumbents Pete Fry and Michael Wiebe are among six candidates for five spots.
The three others are Devyani Singh, Tom Digby and Stefanie Smith.
Singh is a climate scientist and economist. Digby is an intellectual property lawyer and scientist. Smith is a labour and social justice activist.
'Anything could happen'
Could a motion come from the floor at the meeting to nominate Carr as the party’s mayoral candidate?
“Our members are a feisty lot, so anything could happen,” she said, although she didn’t sound convinced that such a scenario would unfold.
Carr was clear that a nod for her this Saturday to seek re-election with the party doesn’t preclude her from running for mayor. Whatever happens, the Greens want to have five candidates running for council seats, one of which could be Carr as the mayoral nominee.
So what’s keeping her from a decision?
A couple of times she’s told me it was too early to decide, noting others such as Mayor Kennedy Stewart made his intention known to seek re-election shortly after he was elected in 2018.
The other consideration is a split in the vote with Stewart.
“I think that it's true — that the voter base that I would attract would overlap more with Kennedy Stewart’s than any other candidate,” she said.
Such a scenario could translate to a victory for one of the increasing number of mayoral candidates who consider themselves centrists. Those candidates include the NPA’s John Coupar, Progress Vancouver’s Mark Marissen, A Better City’s Ken Sim and Colleen Hardwick of TEAM for a Livable Vancouver.
Parking permit vote
So why even consider a run knowing you could split the vote?
The answer lies partly in what happened when Stewart cast the deciding vote last October not to approve a $45-a-year permit to allow car owners to park their vehicles on city streets.
That vote, Carr said, is what elevated her interest in a mayoral run.
“It lost the city about $20 million a year in money that would have gone for climate action,” she said, noting a motorist on a low-income would have been charged five dollars per year for the permit.
Stewart called the permit fee a regressive tax and said it would have unfairly targeted a person renting a basement who parks a car on the street versus a homeowner who has the luxury of parking in a private driveway.
Also on Carr’s mind is whether running for mayor with four Green council candidates would be enough to push the party’s agenda on an 11-member council.
Political scientists have long pointed out that running a full slate of candidates can backfire on a party, especially one that has never won more than three seats at city hall.
In other words, don’t be greedy because the electorate will see through that.
Greens search for allies
That thinking has had the Greens searching for allies from other parties to see what common ground they share.
The party is not looking to endorse candidates from other parties but possibly collaborate on issues such as fighting climate change.
I pointed out to Carr that OneCity’s Christine Boyle has supported many of the same policies as the Greens and been a driver of the city’s climate change plan.
At the same time, Boyle and Stewart supported each other in the 2018 race.
“I have no idea what Christine is going to do, or what OneCity in general is going to do,” Carr said.
“But I do know that there's not been one vote around climate action that Christine hasn't voted for. She's voted for them all. And same with Jean Swanson. And the same thing on tackling the housing affordability crisis.”
Anyway, the Greens will have a second nomination meeting sometime in May for candidates interested in spots on school board and park board. The party has also scheduled an annual general meeting for some time after that contest.
Carr could become the party’s mayoral candidate at one of those meetings.
Or she could make her intentions known before that.
Only she knows.
But as we get closer to October, Carr has certainly got to have a drop-deadline to end all the speculation.
So when is it?
“Oh, geez, that's a good question,” she said. “Obviously, it's got to be done before the summer.”
@Howellings
