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On the , the Conservative Party was slated for a massive victory in the Canadian federal election, with the support of more than half of decided voters in Ontario and British Columbia, and an unpopular Justin Trudeau dragging the Liberal Party to down. Plenty has changed since then. First came the seemingly incessant threats and verbiage from U.S. President Donald Trump. Later, Mark Carney took over as Liberal leader and prime minister.

This past weekend, Research Co. asked Canadians about the federal election that will take place on April 28, and the numbers have certainly moved. Just over two in five decided voters (41 per cent) will cast a ballot for the Liberals, while 37 per cent would support the Conservatives. All other federal parties are in single digits: the New Democratic Party at nine per cent, the Bloc Québécois at seven per cent, the Green Party at three per cent and the People’s Party at two per cent.

The survey outlines major problems for every party that is neither Grit nor Tory. The New Democrats are polling at a level not seen in half a century across the country, holding on to only 58 per cent of their voters in the 2021 election. In British Columbia, the NDP is at eight per cent—a proportion that does not bode well for incumbents defending territory.

The fortunes of the Bloc have changed drastically as their base ponders if the push for sovereignty is worth their vote at a time when the very existence of the country they wish to secede from is at stake. In early January, a third of decided voters in Quebec (34 per cent) were with the Bloc. The proportion has fallen to 22 per cent in late March, tied with the Conservatives and way behind the Liberals (43 per cent).

At this point, the Green Party and the People’s Party remain below the threshold that would guarantee the inclusion of their leaders in the televised debates. While the Greens can count on a pocket of support in British Columbia, where they reach eight per cent, the proportion of Canadians who say the environment is the most important issue facing the country has dropped to a historically low level of two per cent.

The issue landscape partly explains why the public mood has swayed. Canada-U.S. Relations is now the most important issue for three in ten Canadians (30 per cent); followed by the economy and jobs (20 per cent, down two points); housing, homelessness and poverty (17 per cent, down 12 points); health care (nine per cent, down seven points); and immigration (seven per cent, down six points).

More than half of Canadians (57 per cent) approve of the way Mark Carney has handled his duties as prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party, a 23-point improvement from the numbers posted by Trudeau in his final days (34 per cent). The rating is lower for Conservative and Official Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre (46 per cent, down six points) and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh (38 per cent, down one point). Carney is also ahead on the “Best Prime Minister” question (39 per cent, with Poilievre at 33 per cent and Singh at 12 per cent).

Voters in Ontario and British Columbia may end up defining the colour—and size—of the next federal government. In Canada’s most populous province, we have gone from a 28-point lead for the Conservatives among decided voters (51 per cent to 23 per cent) to a three-point edge for the Liberals (39 per cent to 36 per cent).

We have to go back to the two “Trudeaumanias” in 1968 and 2015 to find federal elections where the Liberal Party has finished in first place in British Columbia. Right now, the Carney-led Grits are two points ahead of the Poilievre-led Tories (39 per cent to 37 per cent)—a statistical tie that seemed unthinkable a few weeks ago.

A question on economic management also shows problems for the Conservatives. Right now, 58 per cent of Canadians are comfortable with Carney in charge of the nation’s finances (up 24 points from where Trudeau was when he left office), while Poilievre checks in at 49 per cent (down six points).

Canadians aged 55 and over clearly pick Carney over Poilievre on economic management, but the proportions are similar among those aged 35-54 and slightly better for Poilievre among those aged 18-34. The Conservatives will need to rekindle with younger voters who looked a Poilievre as their preferred option a few weeks ago. For Canadians aged 18-34, housing is still the most important issue at 24 per cent, higher than the economy (23 per cent) or Canada-U.S. Relations (17 per cent).

For the first time since 2015, voter turnout could be a factor. Most Canadians are following stories related to the dispute over tariffs. Voters who have previously eschewed the democratic process may decide to cast a ballot in 2025. The last time three in four eligible Canadians participated in a federal election was 1988. Back then, our relationship with the United States—albeit with a monumentally different individual at the White House—was also “technically” on the ballot.

Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.

Results are based on an online survey conducted on March 23 and March 24, 2025, among 1,003 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.