In one of the first surveys I had conducted in 2007, the environment was identified as the most important issue for British Columbians. Health care was not a salient concern, people were not as worried about economic management and affording a home was challenging, but not impossible. Then came the 2008 global financial crisis, and the environment never regained the top spot.
Almost two decades later, fewer than one in 20 British Columbians (four per cent) say the environment is their top concern.
Earlier this month, more than half of British Columbians (54 per cent) told us that climate change is a fact and is mostly caused by emissions from vehicles and industrial facilities. One in four (25 per cent) say climate change is real but mostly caused by natural changes. Only 13 per cent refer to climate change as a theory that has not yet been proven, and among them are 17 per cent of Fraser Valley residents and 21 per cent of those who voted BC Liberal in the 2020 election.
Twenty-three per cent of men, 19 per cent of residents aged 35 to 54, 19 per cent in both Southern B.C. and Northern B.C., and 21 per cent of 2020 BC Liberal supporters say British Columbians do not need to do anything to deal with climate change. In stark contrast, 44 per cent of the province’s residents think we need to do “much more” and 31 per cent feel we need to do “a bit more.”
More than three in five British Columbians think the carbon tax has negatively affected their household finances. As expected, residents of the Fraser Valley (75 per cent) and 2020 BC Liberal voters (72 per cent) are more likely to say this.
There is a shift on whether the tax has changed behaviours or made consumers more mindful. Almost two in five (39 per cent, up 11 points) believe this is the case, a proportion that rises to 55 per cent among those aged 18 to 34. Residents aged 55 and over are decidedly more skeptical at 26 per cent.
Before Premier David Eby announced a new position on the tax, most British Columbians were already moving towards abolition. Just over half (52 per cent, up 11 points) would scrap B.C.’s carbon tax if the federal Conservatives— which have pledged to “axe” the federal carbon tax—win the next election. Just over a third (35 per cent, down eight points) would keep it. Strong supporters of abolition outrank strong proponents of the status quo by a two-to-one margin (36 per cent to 17 per cent).
Opposition reaches 64 per cent among those who backed the BC Liberals. Among BC NDP voters, scrapping the tax is slightly more popular (48 per cent) than maintaining it (44 per cent).
It is too early to gauge the effect that the carbon tax will have on the provincial election. The BC NDP might have been trying to pre-empt the opportunity of federal Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre—whose party is polling at 50 per cent in B.C. and is giving John Rustad’s BC Conservatives a shot in the arm in the final stages of the campaign with a unified “axe the tax” message. If BC NDP voters refuse to negotiate on the carbon tax, they may look at the BC Greens.
Still, our preoccupation about the environment is not as potent as it was in 2007, when B.C.’s carbon tax was originally designed. Those who assumed that the public would be extremely upset at the early election call John Horgan made in 2020 found their message losing steam with every passing day of the campaign. Other issues become more important than the shock of an unexpected announcement. A similar scenario may ensue if the leaders of B.C.’s main parties are able to connect on the truly salient issues.•
Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.
Results are based on an online study conducted from Sept. 5-7, 2024, among 801 adults in B.C. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the province. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
