We’re barely a quarter of the way through the 2017-18 NHL season but historically, the results from the first seven weeks of action have given a pretty good indication of which teams will be prepping for the playoffs next April.
In November of 2014, Ìý´Ç´Ú The Hockey News wrote that over the 10 previous non-lockout seasons, 77 percent of teams in a playoff position at U.S. Thanksgiving would go on make to a playoff appearance — good odds, but not a slam dunk.
In the three years since Campbell’s article came out, the odds have been even better. In 2014-15, 13 out of 16 teams retained their position (81.25 percent). In 2015-16, it was 12 teams (75 percent), then 13 made it again last season.
But that still isn't a playoff guarantee, as the Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»Canucks and their fans saw firsthand two years ago. At U.S. Thanksgiving on Nov. 26, 2015, the Canucks were in a playoff spot — in third place in the Western Conference with a 9-8-6 record for 24 points. But the Canucks went 22-30-7 the rest of the way, finishing the year 12 points out of contention in 28thÌýoverall.
This year, U.S. Thanksgiving will see the Canucks in the middle of a six-game road trip. Going into Wednesday’s game against the Pittsburgh Penguins, Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»sits in ninth place in the Western Conference — tied with the eighth-place Dallas Stars with 23 points, but outside the playoff cutline because Dallas holds the advantage in the tiebreaker.
They’re exceeding preseason predictions, but will the Canucks be in at the end of the year? Here are three reasons why this year’s team could make the playoffs — and three reasons why the 2018 draft lottery could be the most exciting moment of the 2018 postseason.
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Playoffs, baby! The transition to the next generation is in full swing, with the line of Sven Baertschi, Bo Horvat and Brock Boeser playing big minutes up front and dominating the offense. The rookie Boeser leads the team with nine goals and 19 points and is proving to be the Canucks’ most exciting pure scorer in decades, while Horvat and Baertschi are both on pace for career-best seasons of more than 60 points.
Bring on the draft lottery! After the first line, the offense drops off pretty quickly. The Canucks finished second-last in the league in scoring last season, averaging just 2.17 goals per game. That number has improved by half a goal to 2.67 this year but still leaves Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»26thÌýin scoring in a season where offense is up league-wide.
Offense from the defence also continues to a sore spot — the Canucks have just three goals from defencemen so far this season. And limited icetime has further eroded the production of long-time leading scorers Daniel and Henrik Sedin. The 37-year-old twins are on pace to finish with less than 40 points each this year.
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Playoffs, baby! In his first 21 games as an NHL head coach, Travis Green’s overall performance has been positive. With scoring at a premium, the Canucks have been among the league leaders in shot suppression and goals against and are making an effort to play a more fast-paced, aggressive style.
With their overall talent level, there are still nights where the Canucks are overmatched. Special teams have also remained a challenge. But Green continues to try new things. The previously moribund power play has shown signs of life in recent games, including a 2-for-3 performance in Tuesday’s 5-2 win over the Philadelphia Flyers, and the penalty kill has given up just one goal in the last five games.
Bring on the draft lottery! Injuries have hurt the Canucks badly over the past two seasons and have already been an issue this year, especially on the blue line. Defencemen Alex Edler, Troy Stecher and Chris Tanev have all missed time, as has Loui Eriksson up front.
Early-season MVP Derek Dorsett’s impressive return to hockey after cervical fusion surgery last December is also now on hold. He left the team on Tuesday to be assessed by his surgeon in Los Angeles after experiencing symptoms of neck and back stiffness.
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Playoffs, baby! Better roster depth has helped the Canucks weather their injuries more successfully so far this season. Derrick Pouliot has impressed on the blue line since being acquired from the Pittsburgh Penguins at the beginning of the season, making strong first passes and showing the ability to play both sides as he filled in first for left-side defender Edler, then the righty Tanev. He’ll be tough to knock out of the lineup when the defence gets healthy.
Bring on the draft lottery! The NHL standings are tighter than ever this year — just seven points separate second place from 13th in the Western Conference through games completed on Nov. 21. The Canucks are right in the middle of that group of 12 teams competing for seven playoff spots. Not only do they need to move up to get in, they also need to fend off postseason regulars like the Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks and Minnesota Wild — all currently below the Canucks in the standings.
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Upcoming Games:
Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»Canucks at Pittsburgh Penguins: Wednesday, Nov. 22, 4 p.m.
Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»Canucks at New Jersey Devils: Friday, Nov. 24, 4 p.m.
Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»Canucks at New York Rangers: Sunday, Nov. 26, 11 a.m.
Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»Canucks at New York Islanders: Tuesday, Nov. 28, 4 p.m.
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