If you listed all the people you鈥檇 think would be willing to give the NDP-Green arrangement time to thrive, the last person you鈥檇 name would be Christy Clark.
But her sudden announcement that she鈥檚 quitting the B.C. Liberal leadership this Friday and resigning as MLA (sooner or later) gives the NDP government a lot more breathing room when the legislature resumes in September.
The NDP and Green 44-43 advantage that has been the focus of so much speculation becomes a 44-42 edge in the legislature once Clark quits. That鈥檚 just enough to dampen the anxiety the NDP was anticipating about every vote that comes up in the house.
A month ago, Clark was arguing that the confidence agreement was unworkable and urging the lieutenant-governor to call an election rather than give it a chance.
She told the legislature in June that 鈥渋t鈥檚 more obvious now than it ever was that the opposition never had any intention to make this house work. They never had a plan to make it work if they found themselves in power. Their only intention was to get the Greens to sign on the dotted line and then tell us just to wait and see how they could contrive to bend the rules of our democracy so that they could hang on to power.鈥�
On Friday, she laid out plans to subtract herself from the seat count, which makes the agreement much more workable.
It could have major ramifications for B.C.鈥檚 future, depending on what the NDP does with the opening she has given them. And that opening could last for quite a while.
Clark has one remaining card left to play, and that鈥檚 the date she resigns her seat.
If it is this Friday, at the same time she steps down as leader of the B.C. Liberals, then the six-month clock starts ticking on Premier John Horgan鈥檚 desk. He has that length of time to call the required byelection to fill her vacant Kelowna West seat.
That would give Horgan until Feb. 4 to call the byelection. If he waited the full length, as former premier Clark did when she had to call two byelections last year, that would put the vote in early March (allowing for the 28-day campaign.)
Kelowna West is a safe Liberal seat, so the seat margin could be expected to shrink back to one after the byelection.
But filling that seat wouldn鈥檛 necessarily put the legislature back on high alert for a fall of government and new election.
Even if they were back to being just one seat away from unseating the NDP, the Liberals would still be preoccupied with a leadership race, or just coming to grips with a new leader. That new leader could conceivably still need a seat in the legislature.
Taking whatever advantage arises to bring down the government right around the time their new leader is being picked looks to be of low probability.
The leadership is running on a separate countdown clock that started last Friday, when Clark served notice. Party president Sharon White said the party bylaws require the executive to pick a leadership convention date within 28 days (by Aug. 26). The leadership vote must be within six months of the meeting, which would put the selection of the new leader at Feb. 26 at the latest.
Allowing for some time for a new leader to get up to speed, the period when either the NDP enjoy a two-seat edge in the house or the B.C. Liberals would be less than eager to bring down the NDP could last into next spring or summer.
Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver is meeting regularly with Horgan and starting a round of meetings with cabinet ministers this week. The Greens are pressing for action on all the promises in the confidence agreement, and the top priority is a change in the voting system in time for the next election.
The NDP and Greens have agreed to introduce a law to require a referendum on the change in the fall of 2018.
Liberals have zero interest in that, but their leader鈥檚 upcoming resignation has created an avenue for that change that鈥檚 wider now than it was before her decision.
