It鈥檚 entirely possible that when the balls drop at the draft lottery Saturday night, the Canucks will end up picking fifth overall for the second time in a row. That may seem unjust after two bottom-three finishes, but you can blame the Oilers for winning the lottery so many times in a row and forcing the NHL to change its rules.
It鈥檚 particularly tough this time around, as there鈥檚 a clear top-two in the draft in Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier, then a step down to the next tier of prospects. While the Canucks have a 23.9% chance of picking in the top-two, they鈥檙e far more likely to pick fourth or fifth: 64.8%
That鈥檚 particularly frustrating, as the Canucks have a serious need for what Patrick and Hischier represent: a franchise centre.
Bo Horvat emerged this past season as a first-line centre or, more accurately, the Canucks鈥� first line centre, which is a slightly less impressive accomplishment. While , he finished outside of the top-90 forwards in points-per-game among players with at least 41 games played. He may have the , but he鈥檚 not quite there yet.
But you know what鈥檚 better than one first-line centre? Two first-line centres. What the Canucks really need is not just one centre that could conceivably finish in the top-90 in scoring among forwards, but a legitimate replacement for Henrik Sedin who could conceivably finish in the top-30. A one-two punch of Patrick or Hischier and Horvat would set up the Canucks nicely for a strong core for the future.
If they don鈥檛 pick in the top-two, however, they should still pick a centre.
The Canucks have a lot of needs in their system, including a legitimate number one defenceman, but this doesn鈥檛 seem like the draft to find that guy in the first round. Honestly, since it seems like top-pairing defencemen are , you could make a strong argument for avoiding defencemen in the first round except for very special cases.
Of the top-50 defencemen in scoring this past season, just half were drafted in the first round. Literally, 25 were first-round draft picks and 25 came from outside the first round. Three were undrafted: Mark Giordano, Torey Krug, and Nikita Zaitsev.
Sure, scoring isn鈥檛 necessarily the best way to judge a defenceman, but when the Canucks desperately need point production from the blue line, it seems significant. Just 11 of the top-50 in scoring came from the top-10 picks in the draft.
Centres, on the other hand, are another story. Of the forwards listed as centres on NHL.com, 32 of the top-50 in scoring came from the top-10 picks of the draft. 44 were first-round draft picks.
Perhaps that says more about biases in drafting towards scoring centres, but it seems pretty clear that your best bet for landing a first-line centre comes in the first ten picks of the draft, and your next best bet is elsewhere in the first round.
When you look at this year鈥檚 draft, the Canucks do have good options at centre no matter where they end up drafting, with far more question marks surrounding the defencemen expected to go in that range. At one or two, they鈥檒l obviously get Patrick or Hischier. But their best options at three through five may also be centres.
Casey Mittelstadt, Gabriel Vilardi, and Cody Glass have all emerged as potential top-five picks, with some outside support for Martin Necas and Michael Rasmussen, all centres. I personally would , but I would be happy with any of the other centres projected at the top of the draft.
Despite the perceived weakness of the 2017 draft, the Canucks can still get a top-six centre to complement Horvat, no matter what happens at the lottery.
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