It’s a bye week, so suddenly I've had time to think about things other than the playoff race and the ongoing travails of Megnagate. I’m admittedly pretty weary of trade deadline speculation. So instead, how about some pseudo trade deadline speculation?
In addition to Jannik Hansen and Alex Burrows, Â鶹´«Ă˝Ół»has been rumoured to be shopping a defenceman for a forward, .
But what if the Canucks decided to go bigger?
Chris Tanev is arguably Vancouver’s most valuable asset. In the eyes of Canucks fans, his worth is somewhere between three Connor McDavids and all the gold in the land. , and I don't wear rose-coloured glasses, therefore I objectively consider him worth no more than 1.2 McDavids.
In seriousness, Chris Tanev is a tricky guy to evaluate.
He’s still young at 27, he carries a reasonable cap hit until 2020, and he undeniably makes the team much better when he’s on the ice. We know he’s got quite a bit of value. But there are very few players like him in the NHL. So what’s he worth in a trade?
The answer to that depends very much on the general manager making the offer. How greatly do they value a defensive defender like Tanev? Especially at the deadline?
The easiest way to figure that out is by comparison... which is also the thief of joy. But who cares? Playing in a division that contains Brent Burns and Connor McDavid, Vancouver’s joy was stolen long ago.
So let’s take a look at comparable players who have been traded within the last three seasons. They must be a young, stay-at-home type with a similar style playing top shutdown minutes at the time of trade.
Comparables
- Adam Larsson: This young, defensive defender plays a rather similar game to Tanev. In the summer of 2016, New Jersey sent Larsson to Edmonton in exchange for scoring winger and former first overall pick, Taylor Hall. Larsson is younger and more physical, but I believe Tanev currently has a better overall game.
That's it. OK, that’s one short list. So Tanev must be worth Taylor Hall. Neat! Party!
See what I mean? It’s tough to evaluate identical trade scenarios, not because players like Tanev don’t exist, because GMs tend to hold onto them. So I broadened the search terms a bit.
- Braydon Coburn: This is a player who might be a decent comparison. Like Tanev, he was a stay-at-home guy who ate up big minutes against top lines and was good at transitioning out of the defensive zone. Tampa Bay, in a position of need on the 2015 deadline day, sent Philadelphia Radko Gudas, a 1st and a 3rd round pick to acquire him.
- Jeff Petry: Another team desperate to shore up their defence in a seller’s market, Montreal picked up Jeff Petry from Edmonton for a 2nd and a 5th round pick. Petry was not as highly regarded at the time of the trade, but it turned out pretty well for the Canadiens; since the trade he has thrived with the Habs.
- Ron Hainsey: How’s this for hot off the presses? Pittsburgh acquired Ron Hainsey on Thursday for a second round pick and Danny Kristo. Yes, Pittsburgh is a good team so that pick will come pretty late in the second round, but it’s still very good value for a 35-year-old defender.
- Andrej Sekera: A year older than Tanev at the time of the trade, Carolina shipped him to Los Angeles a week away from the deadline. Sekera garnered a first round pick and defensive prospect Roland McKeown.
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Roman Polak: Roman Polak is a very different type of defender. The technical term I’d use would be “not nearly as good at hockey.” But I think he’s an interesting example to highlight how warped values become once within the gravitational pull of the trade deadline. The Maple Leafs acquired Polak from St. Louis in the summer of 2014 for a fourth round pick and Carl Gunnarsson. A decent return, right?
But later, in 2016 at the deadline, the Leafs sent Polak and Nick Spaling to San Jose for the princely sum of two second round picks. - Erik Gudbranson: Gudbranson on a list with Tanev? Well yeah! This list is about trade values, not hockey skill! The fact is, Jim Benning perceived Gudbranson to be a “real good” big, tough, stay-at-home defender, and he felt that held a lot of value. Â鶹´«Ă˝Ół»sent Jared McCann and a second and fourth round pick to Florida to acquire him. And that was in the summer.
- John-Michael Liles: Hah! Just making sure you’re still paying attention.
So that’s what I was able to dredge up. My willingness to speculate doesn’t extend all the way to hypothetical trade scenarios, but if the above list is any indication, it’s clear that Tanev carries heaps of value heading into a seller’s market deadline. If pressed to guess, I’d imagine the asking price would be somewhere around what Larsson and Coburn got. And if there was a bidding war, who knows?
Do I think he’ll be traded? No. Do I want him to be? Probably not. There’s a reason why I didn’t have many comparables to work with: GMs know better. And what the heck would Â鶹´«Ă˝Ół»do without Tanev on the blueline?
But the Canucks aren't likely to be a powerhouse again anytime soon. So if someone calls, and I believe they will, Mr. Benning ought at least to listen.
