The NHL draft is tricky. The job of scouts is to watch 17 and 18-year-olds play dozens of games and, from those games, project how those teenagers will play in the NHL in their twenties.
It’s never quite as simple as drafting the “best player available,” as people like to put it, because the best player at the age of 18 isn’t always going to be the best player five years later for a variety of reasons.
If it’s that hard to project players at the draft, it’s far harder to do so a year or more in advance of the draft. Prospects that were barely on anyone’s radar can explode onto the scene and rocket up the draft rankings while other prospects who were expected to be among the top picks sometimes disappoint in their draft year and plummet down the rankings.
It’s not always their fault. Sometimes, players in the spotlight get over-scouted. A prospect’s strengths start to become old hat when you see them game after game and a scout can start to micro-analyze, finding all sorts of nitpicking negative aspects to their game that might not really matter in the big picture.
Other times, a prospect just isn’t as good as scouts hoped he would be.
That leads to Brad Lambert, once expected to challenge Shane Wright to be the number one pick in the draft, now expected to slide down into the middle of the first round, where the Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»Canucks could realistically pick him.
Did Lambert slide because scouts lost sight of his strengths or because his year was legitimately that disappointing? And would he be the right pick for the Canucks if he’s available at 15th overall?
- Centre/Right Wing
6’0” - 183 lbs - Dec 19, 2003
Lahti, FIN
JYP/Pelicans, Liiga (49-4-6-10)
Brad Lambert is, in a word, divisive.
Some scouts and scouting services look at Lambert and still see a top-tier prospect. Lambert is still highly rated by some public draft rankings, with FC Hockey, McKeen’s Hockey, International Scouting Services, and Smaht Scouting all landing Lambert in their top-10.
He’s held in much lower esteem by others, however. Bob McKenzie has him ranked 16th overall, Sportsnet has him 20th, The Hockey News has him at 21st, and Craig Button has him in the second round at 42nd overall.
Lambert initially turned heads when he made his debut in Finland’s under-20 league at just 14 years old. At 16, he had a fantastic year in the U-20 league and even played four games in Finland’s top men’s league, putting up two assists in those four games. The hype continued the following year, when he had 7 goals and 15 points in 46 Liiga games at the age of 17.
This past season, however, Lambert took a step backward. Across two teams after a mid-season change, Lambert had just 4 goals and 10 points in 49 Liiga games. He performed well in the all-too-brief World Junior tournament, putting up 5 points in 2 games before the tournament was cancelled, but his regular season performance was a concern.
But let’s add a bit of context here. Just one first-year draft-eligible player had more points in the Finnish Liiga than Lambert — Joakim Kemell, who is expected to be a top-10 pick.
One player had the same number of points as Lambert, albeit in fewer games — Juraj Slafkovsky, who is expected to get picked second-overall, with some ranking him first-overall ahead of Shane Wright.
While 10 points is a disappointment after his 15-point season a year ago, Lambert still played 49 games in a men’s league at the age of 18. That’s not nothing.
So, why is Lambert such a contentious player? It’s because there’s no one else in the draft with his combination of incredible tools and glaring red flags, making him the biggest boom-or-bust prospect available.
"The best mechanical skater and handler in this draft."
It starts with Lambert’s skating, which is arguably the best in the draft.
“The best skater in the draft and maybe the best hands,” said one NHL scout to The Hockey News.
Elite Prospects rates Lambert as the best straight-line skater in the draft and the second-best in four-way mobility. In other words, Lambert is an elite skater, who can flat-out move.
“The 6-feet-tall pivot is the best mechanical skater and handler in this draft,” says his Elite Prospects scouting report. “He flies up and down the ice with perfect skating posture, ample flexibility through his ankles, knees and hips, and a stable upper body. His top hand is pushed out, free from his torso, and he cradles the puck at the heel of his blade with quickness and precision that most players can't match.”
In transition, Lambert is lightning quick, with the addition of agile east-west mobility and excellent puckhandling skill that sees him dance through the neutral zone and embarrass opponents.
“Few players can change their direction as swiftly and effortlessly as Lambert,” . “A defender who commits his weight too early in either direction is in big trouble when defending the dynamic Finn off the rush.”
Here’s an example, as he builds up speed with a loop back into his own zone and attacks through the neutral zone with a series of quick crossovers, then cuts through two defenders with a toe-drag that nearly goes too far, but he controls it, then taps the puck back to his teammate with a nifty kick pass behind his own leg.
Lambert’s combination of speed and skill is tantalizing and it’s understandable why those abilities had scouts projecting him as a potential first-overall pick in previous years.
"His speed couples with a real hunger for the puck."
Lambert doesn’t just use blind speed, either. He has a knack for changing speeds to create space for himself and open up potential passing lanes, particularly enjoying hard stops to send defenders hurtling past him so he can get a shot on net or set up a teammate.
To go with his skating and puckhandling, Lambert has some playmaking ability, able to slip passes through traffic and flip saucer passes to teammates in space. His speed works in concert with his playmaking, as he drives into the zone, attracts attention, then finds the open man.
Lambert has the glimmers of a decent two-way game too. He’s a pain in the neck on the forecheck thanks to his blinding speed. In the defensive zone, he’s diligent and uses his mobility to put pressure on puck carriers in the neutral zone. He’s decently strong and willing to tie up opponents in front or get down to block a shot, all of which will be essential if he wants to be a centre at the NHL level.
“His speed couples with a real hunger for the puck,” . “He was chasing down loose pucks and winning races a lot more often than a lot of other young players in this year’s draft.”
All of those skills and abilities combine to give him incredible upside. There’s a chance that he becomes a first-line forward in the NHL that gives opponents fits with his speed and skill.
So, what’s the problem?
"Less than the sum of his parts."
The issue is that Lambert might be all tools and no toolbox.
“His hockey sense is a question mark,” said an NHL scout to The Hockey News. “His compete level and work ethic is so bad at times, too, 90 per cent of the time, it’s not there.”
The work ethic concerns are disputed — some scouts seem to have no concerns with his effort level, as he seems to skate miles every shift — but the hockey sense has been questioned by many.
For a playmaking centre, Lambert doesn’t scan the ice enough to see where his teammates and opponents are. He frequently hangs onto the puck too long, trying to do too much himself instead of making an easy pass.
“Lambert, as currently constructed, is less than the sum of his parts,” says Elite Prospects. “So much of his supreme ability is undone by a desire to make highlight-reel plays where simpler ones would suffice.”
Sometimes, a player with elite physical skills never develops the mental side of the game to go with them. If you’ve always been faster than everyone else on the ice, you don’t really need a lot of hockey sense. At least, you don’t until you get to a higher level of play.
There are also concerns about whether Lambert gets to the inside enough, something that will only be more difficult on the smaller ice of the NHL.
Lambert also lacks a quality shot, making it difficult for him to score from distance. He has the handling and speed to drive the net and score by undressing a goaltender but he needs to develop his shooting technique — both his wrist shot and one-timer — to make him a more dangerous offensive threat.
Is Lambert's upside worth the risk for the Canucks?
Are those concerns enough to keep Lambert from hitting his ceiling?
There are some reasons to dismiss some of Lambert’s red flags. He didn’t get a lot of support from his Liiga teammates on the ice, with a very low on-ice shooting percentage and some strange system choices that didn’t make the most of Lambert’s skillset. Lambert’s lack of production this season might have more to do with who he was playing with than Lambert himself.
Perhaps that shows most in his success in international competition while playing with his peers. In the right environment and with the right development, Lambert could be elite. With some work on improving his on-ice vision to make the most of his playmaking skills, Lambert could be a legitimate playmaking centre that attacks the offensive zone with incredible speed, putting defencemen on their heels every single shift.
Or, there’s a chance that Lambert’s speed and skill turns into absolutely nothing at the NHL level without the hockey sense to go with it.
If the Canucks want to improve their speed, there’s no one better in the draft than Lambert. But is he worth the risk?
