J.T. Miller has never cared too much about points. It’s something he’s repeatedly said to the media, even as he was hitting new career highs in recent years. He cares a lot more about whether what he does on the ice leads to wins.
“Like I’ve said to you guys a million times, I’m not really evaluating myself on points,” said Miller after his 99-point season in 2021-22. “Is it nice to produce? For sure, but I think I could be a more consistent player for 200 feet of the rink.”
Even after cracking the 100-point barrier this past season, Miller downplayed his own individual accomplishments and talked about how his teammates helped him look and play better.
“I’m just trying to do my job,” he said. “And if I do my job, that gives our team a better chance of winning, and if everybody does that to a man, it makes everybody look better.”
Miller did his job last season at both ends of the ice. He improved his defensive game immensely under the tutelage of head coach Rick Tocchet, fitting neatly into Tocchet’s defensive structure and north-south style of play through the neutral zone. At 5-on-5, he was on the ice for his lowest rate of shots against, scoring chances against, and goals against in his five seasons with the Canucks.
Then there’s the points. As much as Miller repeatedly downplays his goals and assists, there’s no denying how important his scoring was for the Canucks this past season. His 103 points led the team in scoring and landed him in the top 10 in the NHL. Nine of his 37 goals were game-winners, which was tied for seventh in the NHL, and he led the Canucks with six game-tying goals.
It was an outstanding season that helped the Canucks go from outside of the playoff picture to the top of the Pacific Division with 50 wins. But the NHL is very much a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league, so the question is, can he do it again?
Only Pavel Bure has had multiple 100+ point seasons for the Canucks
Just seven Canucks have put up 100+ points in a season, with Miller joining the Sedins, Pavel Bure, Alexander Mogilny, Markus Näslund, and Elias Pettersson. Only one Canuck has done it twice: Pavel Bure had 110 points in the 1992-93 season, then followed it up with 107 points in the 1993-94 season.
Of the other six Canucks, Miller’s come the closest to two 100-point seasons with his 99 points in 80 games in 2021-22. In the subsequent season, however, Miller had 82 points in 81 games — still better than a point-per-game and still very good, but a significant step down from 99 points.
It’s a good reminder, though, that Miller has been one of the top-scoring forwards in the NHL across the past three seasons. His 284 points in 242 games rank tenth in the NHL in that time, ahead of the likes of Mitch Marner, Sidney Crosby, and William Nylander.
Along the way, Miller became a true fan favourite, with crowds frequently chanting his name during the regular season and into the playoffs.
But what can fans expect from Miller next season? Will he once again flirt with 100 points or is he more likely to fall back to the point-per-game pace he scored at in 2021-22?
Canucks fans, at least those who responded to an informal Twitter poll, are predicting he lands somewhere in between, with the majority of respondents selecting 90-99 points.
Not far behind, many Canucks fans think he’ll instead fall back to 80-89 points, though some still think he will breach 100 points again.
What went right for J.T. Miller last season
A lot had to go right for Miller to put up 103 points last season. That’s nothing against Miller — a lot has to go right for anyone to score 100+ points.
For Miller, it was a combination of things. One was accepting hard lessons that he wished he understood earlier in his career about using his emotion and passion in the right ways and not letting it take over. He praised the coaching staff for helping him to accept him for who he is.
“The staff here has helped me embrace who I am instead of run from it,” said Miller at the end of the season. “Like, it’s good that I wear my heart on my sleeve and I’m a little louder but they helped me channel it.”
A big part of his career year was also paying off the long-developing chemistry with Brock Boeser, who himself had a career year. The two were dynamite together all season long, even if they had a rotating cast of linemates on their left wing.
He also had the help of some favourable numbers.
The above chart takes Miller’s shot-rate, shooting percentage, and on-ice shooting percentage at both even-strength and on the power play from last season and compares them to his career averages. It becomes readily apparent where the biggest differences in the numbers are: shooting percentage and on-ice shooting percentage at even-strength.
Among forwards who played at least 500 minutes at even-strength last season, Miller was sixth in shooting percentage, scoring on 20.16% of his shots on goal. That is, unsurprisingly, the highest mark of his career by a wide margin. His previous career high for even-strength shooting percentage was 16.67% — more than three-and-a-half percentage points lower.
Similarly, Miller’s on-ice shooting percentage — the shooting percentage of his team when he was on the ice — spiked at even-strength this past season. The Canucks scored on a league-high 15.22% of their shots on goal when Miller was on the ice at even-strength, eclipsing his previous career-high of 12.63%.
These career-highs subsequently led to a career-high of 61 even-strength points despite actually playing fewer even-strength minutes than in his previous two seasons.
Add in another career-high — 40 points on the power play, good for sixth in the NHL — and two shorthanded points and that’s how Miller got to 103 on the season.
The power play, however, wasn’t a result of percentages going Miller’s way. In fact, his shooting percentage on the power play last season was lower than his career average but, because he shot the puck a little more often, he still scored 10 power play goals. Similarly, the Canucks’ shooting percentage as a team when Miller was on the ice was right around his career average.
What helped Miller set a career high is another number: Individual Points Percentage (IPP). That statistic simply measures what percentage of goals a player gets a point on when they are on the ice.
Miller had a point on 78.43% of the Canucks’ power play goals when he was on the ice, which was a career high. It was only a small improvement over his previous career high but it was enough to get him a few extra power play points.
A high IPP is a good thing — it means Miller was heavily involved in the Canucks’ power play success — but it can also be fickle from year to year. Odds are that it will go down a little next season, even if the Canucks’ power play is just as good or even better.
All in all, the odds of Miller repeating the circumstances that led to his career year are pretty slim. His sky-high even-strength shooting percentage and league-leading even-strength on-ice shooting percentage will likely regress, leading to lower point totals.
If Miller and the Canucks had converted at his career averages, he would have had 17 goals and 42 points at even-strength — 8 fewer goals and 19 fewer points. That’s still very good, mind you, but it would have resulted in a season much like 2022-23: 27 goals and 82 points.
A new linemate could provide a big boost to Miller and Boeser
So far, this article has mostly been reasons why Miller likely won’t repeat his 103-point season but there are also reasons to believe he can.
One is that he’s done it before — or nearly, with his 99 points in 2021-22. It’s not like this past season was a complete anomaly in his career. And perhaps it’s unfair to compare Miller’s career year with his career averages when he’s improved so much in the last five seasons with the Canucks. He’s consistently had a higher even-strength shooting percentage with the Canucks than previously in his career.
Another is that 100+ point seasons aren’t as rare as they used to be. Scoring rates have gone up around the league and gaudier point totals are becoming more normal. When Henrik and Daniel Sedin had their 100+ point seasons, they led the league in scoring. Only three other players cracked 100 points in those seasons: Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, and Nicklas Backstrom, all in 2009-10.
Compare that to last season, when Miller was one of nine players to put up 100+ points. In the last three seasons, there have been 28 100+ point years. There were 15 in the ten seasons prior to that.
But the biggest reason why Miller might put up another 100 points is that he’s likely to have a better left winger on his line than last season.
Aside from Boeser, Millers most frequent linemate last season was Phil Di Giuseppe, who had a grand total of 10 points. After that was Pius Suter, who was very effective with Miller and Boeser, but put up just 29 points.
This coming season, Miller could have a few different options at left wing, such as Danton Heinen, Nils Höglander, and Dakota Joshua, all of whom out-scored Di Giuseppe and Suter last season. All of those are quality options but he might also end up with the Canucks’ biggest free-agent acquisition on his wing: Jake DeBrusk.
While DeBrusk was ostensibly signed to give Elias Pettersson a quality running mate, his style of play might end up being a better fit with Miller and Boeser. Adding a player with 30-goal potential to the already potent Miller/Boeser duo could be huge.
With more quality options on the wing, the opportunity for Miller to develop chemistry with two wingers rather than just Boeser could be a major boon to the Canucks as a team and Miller as an individual. And that just might mean another 100-point season.
