Many people have wondered why Brandon Sutter continued to play with the Sedins for so long with Jannik Hansen injured, despite him clearly not being well-suited to the task. One theory that I saw several times, including in our own comments section, is that Henrik Sedin鈥檚 back is still hurt and that Sutter was on his line to reduce the number of faceoffs he has to take.
We all recall last season when Henrik spent an entire game because of how bad his back hurt and there were many occasions where he seemed unable to fully bend over to take a faceoff. Is he still dealing with that back issue?
The first piece of evidence that this theory doesn鈥檛 hold up is that Jannik Hansen was immediately put back with the Sedins after returning from injury. Since Hansen doesn鈥檛 take faceoffs, Henrik was back to taking all of the faceoffs for his line.
That alone does critical damage to this theory and aptly demonstrates Betteridge's law of headlines: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no." It also suggests that the Canucks actually think Sutter was the best option to play with the Sedins. Loui Eriksson barely got a sniff with the Sedins, playing a few third periods when the Canucks needed a goal, ignoring that the Canucks need goals all the time.
Seriously, Willie Desjardins said, 鈥淚 feel a little bit that Eriksson with the twins gives us the best chance at offence...The whole game, I like Sutter there. I think it just depends on the game and how the guys are playing.鈥�
I sometimes wonder if Sutter鈥檚 proficiency in the defensive zone comes from having so much practice at being in the defensive zone. If that鈥檚 where you spend the majority of your time on the ice, you might as well get good at it, right?
But is Sutter actually better for the Sedins defensively than Eriksson? That鈥檚 a big fat nope.
With Eriksson, the Sedins give up 44.92 shot attempts per 60 minutes. With Sutter, 50.60 shot attempts per 60 minutes. And this isn鈥檛 because the Sedins get used more defensively with Sutter than with Eriksson; they鈥檝e started about the same percentage of their shifts in the offensive zone with both wingers.
When it comes to goals, the Sedins with Sutter have been outscored 9-4 at 5-on-5. Even with Eriksson鈥檚 slow start, the Canucks have outscored their opponents 7-4 at 5-on-5 with the Sedins and Eriksson on the ice.
So the Sedins give up more shot attempts and goals with Sutter than they do with Eriksson. How is he better for them defensively?
But one of the things Sutter is good at is faceoffs. He leads the Canucks with a 53.4% success rate in the circle. He leads the Canucks in total faceoffs taken, mainly because he takes faceoffs at even-strength, on the power play, and on the penalty kill.
But even with taking faceoffs while playing on the top line, he still hasn鈥檛 taken more faceoffs than Henrik at even-strength. Sutter has taken 353, while Henrik has taken 363.
So again, it doesn鈥檛 seem like the Canucks are actively trying to keep Henrik out of the faceoff circle. Henrik is third on the Canucks in total faceoffs taken right now, behind Sutter and Bo Horvat, but he鈥檚 still in the top 50 in the league.
Still, having Sutter taking faceoffs on his strong side is one of the few benefits to having him on the Sedins鈥� wing. The problem is that it doesn鈥檛 outweigh the many, many ways he brings the Sedins down.
Here鈥檚 the thing: faceoffs don鈥檛 matter as much as some people think.
founder Gabriel Desjardins and many other analytics writers have pointed out that . Desjardins later broke it down even further and figured out that , but only for a brief period of time after a faceoff. After that, it鈥檚 as if the faceoff never even happened. Tyler Dellow did work later that .
So faceoffs do matter, but only for a few seconds after each faceoff. And the difference between a good faceoff man, like Sutter, and an average faceoff man, like Henrik, is minimal. It could mean just a couple more faceoff wins per game. So, for maybe 10 seconds of a game, having a faceoff-winning winger has a tangible benefit.
The problem is that the faceoff-winning winger then has to play for the rest of the shift. And that鈥檚 the problem with Sutter playing with the Sedins.
Even with Sutter winning a few extra faceoffs, he and the Sedins have a brutal 46.5% corsi. The Canucks have been out-attempted 129 to 112 when they鈥檝e been on the ice at 5-on-5. Conversely, the Sedins and Eriksson have a superb 57.5% corsi. They鈥檝e out-attempted their opponents 145 to 107.
Look, if Willie Desjardins is going to play Hansen with the Sedins, that鈥檚 great. But the next best option isn鈥檛 and should never be Sutter. His proficiency in the faceoff circle doesn鈥檛 make up for all the ways he doesn鈥檛 fit with the Sedins.
And if the Canucks are worried about Henrik's back and him taking faceoffs on his weak side, just ask him to take it easy on those draws: they really don't make a huge difference.
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