Victor Wembanyama already has command of the English language, including some terms that don鈥檛 exactly show up in the 18-year-old鈥檚 French dictionary.
Among them: tanking.
The worst-kept secret in the NBA this season is that some teams aren鈥檛 exactly going to be trying their best to win as many games as possible. Instead, they鈥檒l be using this season to develop their young players, get them some experience, while hoping to be bad enough 鈥� and then lucky enough 鈥� to win the draft lottery and the chance to select the 7-foot-3 Wembanyama next June.
鈥淥f course, the word and the meaning of the word 鈥榯anking鈥� is kind of weird,鈥� Wembanyama said. 鈥淎nd, personally, I would never want to lose. It鈥檚 a personal thing. But I really try to stay outside of it and don鈥檛 care about it.鈥�
Nor should he. It鈥檚 out of his control. He鈥檒l play his season in France and find out in May at the draft lottery who won the No. 1 pick. He may as well call a realtor in whatever city wins at that point, because it鈥檚 almost an absolute certainty that he鈥檒l soon need a home there with high doorways and ceilings.
If he wants to start shopping now, these are the places he might want to study up on, based on the odds of making the playoffs Orlando, Detroit, Indiana, Oklahoma City, Utah and San Antonio.
The Spurs might be the sentimental favorite. Wembanyama spent last season playing in France for a team owned by former Spurs guard Tony Parker. San Antonio was bad enough in the 1996-97 season 鈥� don鈥檛 say tanking to the Spurs 鈥� to be able to draft Tim Duncan and go on to win five championships. And this year, well, they鈥檙e not going to be good.
鈥淚 probably shouldn鈥檛 say this, but I鈥檒l say it anyway,鈥� Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said, as he leaned down closer to the microphone for extra emphasis at his team鈥檚 media day last month. 鈥淣obody here should go to Vegas with the thought of betting on us to win the championship.鈥�
A few days later, the Spurs 鈥� and the rest of the league 鈥� play a pair of preseason games. against the G League Ignite.
Betting on the Spurs would be a mistake. Betting on Wembanyama probably isn鈥檛.
鈥淚 think I could be jinxing a player who hasn鈥檛 come into the NBA yet by me anointing him as the next great one,鈥� NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said. 鈥淏ut he certainly has all the attributes of a true game-changer. ... I know that many of our NBA teams are salivating at the notion that potentially through our lottery that they could get him.鈥�
Silver then said those teams 鈥渟hould all still compete very hard next season.鈥� Ha. Well, it鈥檚 more like a matter of perspective. Players will play hard; that鈥檚 a given. But some teams will simply be trying to win the Daytona 500 while on a 10-speed Schwinn. They鈥檒l be sweaty at the end of the race, but they鈥檙e not going to be anywhere near Victory Lane.
There are many teams that would love to luck their way into Wembanyama but aren鈥檛 planning to actively try to swing the odds in their favor. There might be more teams that consider themselves to be contenders 鈥� either for the playoffs or for a championship 鈥� at the start of this season than any other in recent memory.
Yet some teams pretty much already know they鈥檙e lottery-bound.
鈥淭here鈥檚 Wembanyama, whatever the kid鈥檚 name is, sweepstakes, and then everyone else is good. ... Not that anybody in the NBA would ever tank,鈥� Dallas owner Mark Cuban said earlier this week, according to The Dallas Morning News.
That鈥檚 pretty much the deal right now. There鈥檚 the haves, the teams that are going to fight for the playoffs. And then there are the have-nots. Or in this case, the want-to-have-Wembanyama group.
Still, if a team somehow goes 0-82, even that wouldn鈥檛 overly stack the Wembanyama deck in its favor. That team would have only a 14% chance of winning the lottery, a 52% chance of finishing in the top four, and a 48% chance of finishing in exactly the No. 5 spot.
The three teams with the worst regular season records will all have a 14% chance of winning the lottery. The fourth-worst team will have a 12.5% chance, the fifth-worst team a 10.5% chance. The odds continue getting smaller from there, with the last team in the lottery 鈥� one of the teams that loses in the play-in tournament 鈥� having a 0.5% chance, or 200-1.
Somebody is going to lose a lot, then get maybe a franchise-changing win, thanks to the order of how four ping-pong balls emerge from a plastic hopper in May at the lottery.
The victor there gets ... well, Victor.
For some teams, that鈥檚 the dream. So, let the race to the bottom begin.
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Tim Reynolds is a national basketball writer for The Associated Press. Write to him at treynolds(at)ap.org
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Tim Reynolds, The Associated Press
